March 25, 2022
"Responding to challenges - by overcoming limits." The Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov arranged a presentation of the preprint of the report to the Rome Club. On March 23, the Moscow State University Fundamental Library hosted a presentation of the preprint of the report to the Rome Club "Overcoming Limits", timed to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the first report of the club "The Limits to Growth". The rector of the Moscow State University Viktor Sadovnichy and a foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), the first president of the Kyrgyz Republic Askar Akayev presented the results of the long-term research work. The report was devoted to the analysis and forecast of the development of human civilization in the XXI century, as well as to possible solutions to the global challenges men are facing in the modern world.
The presented report is a fresh look at the solution of global problems that have been under discussions by the Club of Rome for more than half a century. Research on modeling and forecasting of world dynamics is conducted at the Moscow State University named after Lomonosov since 2009. The authors not only identify the problems of record rates of demographic and economic growth, as well as the critical anthropogenic load on the biosphere, but also put forward scientifically grounded proposals for a new paradigm of global development.
General provisions and trends
The first report " The Limits to Growth " was a great success. In the XX century demographic and economic growth reached a record pace in the history of mankind: the world's population increased 4 times over the century, and world GDP increased 20 times. As a result of rapid economic growth after the Industrial Revolution, the anthropogenic impact on the environment has increased. There was a transition from the Holocene epoch (before the Industrial Revolution) to the Anthropocene epoch (after the Industrial Revolution), when human activity became the main factor in changing the natural environment.
One of the first to realize this fact was V.I. Vernadsky. He announced that humanity has become a powerful geological force and a new state of the biosphere - the noosphere was approaching. Analyzing this, Western scholars have proposed the concept of planetary boundaries that define safe spaces for human development.
J. Rockström identified 9 interconnected planetary boundaries:
- climate change;
- rate of biodiversity loss;
· land use change;
- global freshwater use;
- ocean acidification;
- stratospheric ozone depletion;
- interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycle;
- chemical pollution;
- atmospheric aerosol load.
Violation of one or more of them can lead to disaster, for the risk of exceeding the thresholds will cause dramatic changes in the environment. Today, three processes - climate change, the rate of biodiversity loss, and interference with the nitrogen cycle - have already gone beyond acceptable limits.
"Now, our report is a Russian view from the standpoint of the current situation of the first quarter of the XXI century, which, of course, is based on both previous studies and our own analytical data," explains V.A. Sadovnichy.
He spoke about Western scientists who, based on socio-natural processes, came to the conclusion that the existing models of economic growth, production and consumption are inevitably destroying the natural balance and bringing an ecological catastrophe closer. Our foreign colleagues see salvation in changing the priorities of society's development, in the idea that in addition to the market economy, the world must have an idea of social care.
"We have also come to the conclusion that humanity is currently at a turning point in its history. But unlike our Western colleagues, we believe that the global problems that have arisen are not the limits of growth, but challenges that can and must be overcome," notes V.A. Sadovnichy.
The Russian approach to the analysis of problems is different, first of all, by the "range of perception". While our foreign colleagues from the Club of Rome considered the issues studied in the range of several decades, the current authors approached the study of the issue within a broad macro-historical context spanning hundreds and thousands of years:
"Unlike the Club of Rome authors, who focused mainly on the planet's physical and biological limits (exhaustible natural resources that limit the earth's ability to absorb industrial and agricultural pollution), in our study we try to consider modern processes in a broader macroeconomic context, taking into account the features of long-term technological development."
In addition, the report contains a warning: humanity's desire for unlimited population growth, consumption of material goods and resources will lead to the collapse of its economic and ecological systems. Scientists conclude that the capitalist system is unable to handle and solve global environmental problems.
"In our study we give sound grounds to the conclusion that the main problem lies in the socio-political sphere. And the most important prerequisite for solving common humanitarian tasks is the transition from competition between the countries of the world to joint cooperative actions. In this case, most of the problems become not the limits of growth, but challenges that can be overcome by joint efforts and focused technologies," noted V.A. Sadovnichy.
The rector mentioned instability, geopolitical conflicts, governance crises and trade wars at the international level among the negative characteristics of modern reality. In order to overcome modern challenges, it is necessary to direct the emerging sixth technological system (order) not to increase consumption, but to search for solutions to problems within the framework of post-capitalism and noospheric thinking, the mechanism of which should be the political will of the leaders of the world to end confrontation and to unite efforts in solving common tasks.
Mathematical models and forecasts
A.A. Akayev delved into the history of the formation of modern challenges and forecasting their development with the use of mathematical models. The speaker identified 7 areas in which calculations were made:
- climate (atmospheric pollution),
- ecology (environmental pollution),
- economy,
- demography,
- technology.
- social sphere,
- politics.
The scientist paid special attention to the problem of global warming and the impact of energy strategies on this issue. He noted that the results of the Paris and Kyoto conferences, as well as the Glasgow summit, were taken into account before searching for possible solutions, so that the options could not only hypothetically level the problem, but also take into account the real capabilities of countries.
The scientist noted the course on the use of renewable energy sources (RES) as a positive trend among the current energy strategies. However, any sharp rejection of the usually used coal, gas and oil can also have a negative impact and hit the economies of countries. To make the transition less painful, it is necessary not to abandon the old stations, but to stop building new ones. It is also necessary to neutralize coal emissions using modern technologies, which will reduce performance index/efficiency, but will be a sure step towards solving the environmental problem.
The scientist noted that previously everyone used to calculate the consumed energy, while in this case we calculate the number of the population, who consume energy. Our forecast is based on the concept of demographic and technological imperative: the pace of technological development is proportional to the number of population. A mobile nuclear power plant was named one of the best forms of energy generation as a future symbiosis of renewable and nuclear energy.
A.A. Akayev also made a prediction about artificial intelligence. In addition to the well-known fear that due to artificial intelligence the people of specific professions would lose their jobs, the scientist clarified that the consequences could be much more serious:
"For the first time we see the presence of intelligent, smart machines. They started taking away our work on the analysis, production and use of information. This means that in the XXI century intelligent machines will not only take away our works, jobs, but will, for the first time, begin to contribute to the reduction of the population. Whether we will be able to get ourselves stabilized in these conditions, no one knows yet [...] The reports of the Club of Rome claim that population growth is a disaster. It is necessary to vary, reduce the birth rate and take control into their own hands. We, on the contrary, have come to the conclusion that humanity should now think about how to stop the depopulation of human civilization".
At the end of his speech, A.A. Akayev presented the developed strategies of solving urgent problems:
- transition to fair globalization;
- fair international trade;
- reform of the financial system;
- transition to a green economy;
- social innovations;
- fight against social inequality all over the world.
V.A. Sadovnichy noted that the report is of a polemical nature and expresses the author's point of view. According to A.A. Akayev, the people at the Club of Rome willingly cooperate with their Russian colleagues. The full report in English will be presented in the autumn and will according to the tradition be published by Springer Publishing house, and the book in Russian will be released soon, this summer.
Tranclated in English by Muhiddin Ganiew